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MMT revelations

nima1981 | PRO | 12/21/16 06:02:41 PM UTC | 0 ⭐ | 284 👁️ | Never ⏰ | []
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- banks don't lend based on reserves they have or based on people putting money in a savings/checking account, it's rather the opposite: banks loan out money, and that creates a savings deposit
 - the central bank always accommodates the demand for reserves & there is no empirical basis to the lending multiplier, rather reserves are an after the fact figure
 - in a sovereign fiat money system government routine deficits may be necessary to supply private sector net saving, unless sufficient export surpluses are achieved (which are impossible to achieve universally)
 - in a sovereign fiat money system governments don't need to obtain money by borrowing or taxation; borrowing is just an optional offer to give private sector actors an opportunity to earn risk free interest; taxation is a means to give the money they spend into existence value
 - if you pay taxes with old dollar bills they get shredded!
 - in aggregate, spending comes first in the causality chain, not production
 - interest rates on risk free investments are exogenous
 - 6 out of 7 times the US government ran a budget surplus a depression followed
 - read up a bit more on deflation here: http://cfeps.org/pubs/wp-pdf/WP12-Wray.pdf
 - evidence that budget surplus can create depression:
 https://books.google.com/books?id=PbhfAQAAQBAJ&pg=PA53&lpg=PA53&dq=%22The+United+States+has+also+experienced+six+periods+of+depression.+The+depressions+began+in+1819,+1837,+1857,+1873,+1893,+and+1929.%22&source=bl&ots=3ZX8sW96N6&sig=MWJ_8iyVc-bWjCo_Cg4Aqf5UYdY&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi0h4zIlIfRAhUG6mMKHazsBREQ6AEIJTAC#v=onepage&q=%22The%20United%20States%20has%20also%20experienced%20six%20periods%20of%20depression.%20The%20depressions%20began%20in%201819%2C%201837%2C%201857%2C%201873%2C%201893%2C%20and%201929.%22&f=false
 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/02/wray-the-federal-budget-is-not-like-a-household-budget-%E2%80%93-here%E2%80%99s-why.html
 "2. With one brief exception, the federal government has been in debt every year since 1776. In January 1835, for the first and only time in U.S. history, the public debt was retired, and a budget surplus was maintained for the next two years in order to accumulate what Treasury Secretary Levi Woodbury called “a fund to meet future deficits.” In 1837 the economy collapsed into a deep depression that drove the budget into deficit, and the federal government has been in debt ever since. Since 1776 there have been exactly seven periods of substantial budget surpluses and significant reduction of the debt. From 1817 to 1821 the national debt fell by 29 percent; from 1823 to 1836 it was eliminated (Jackson’s efforts); from 1852 to 1857 it fell by 59 percent, from 1867 to 1873 by 27 percent, from 1880 to 1893 by more than 50 percent, and from 1920 to 1930 by about a third. Of course, the last time we ran a budget surplus was during the Clinton years. I do not know any household that has been able to run budget deficits for approximately 190 out of the past 230-odd years, and to accumulate debt virtually nonstop since 1837.
 3. The United States has also experienced six periods of depression. The depressions began in 1819, 1837, 1857, 1873, 1893, and 1929. (Do you see any pattern? Take a look at the dates listed above.) With the exception of the Clinton surpluses, every significant reduction of the outstanding debt has been followed by a depression, and every depression has been preceded by significant debt reduction. The Clinton surplus was followed by the Bush recession, a speculative euphoria, and then the collapse in which we now find ourselves. The jury is still out on whether we might manage to work this up to yet another great depression. While we cannot rule out coincidences, seven surpluses followed by six and a half depressions (with some possibility for making it the perfect seven) should raise some eyebrows. And, by the way, our less serious downturns have almost always been preceded by reductions of federal budget deficits. I don’t know of any case of a national depression caused by a household budget surplus."
 http://realfactbias.blogspot.com/2011/07/why-federal-government-should-never-run.html
  FOR THE FDR CALL:
 - explain why barter theory of money is empirically invalid, present historical evidence for the stat theory of money: http://www.economicsjunkie.com/empiricism-shatters-barter-theory-money/
 - more evidence for state theory of money: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt:_The_First_5000_Years
 - Split Tally Stick: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tally_stick#Split_tally
 - ask Stef if he knows what happens when you pay your taxes in old dollar bills
 - then explain the MMT mechanism of spending money into existence (maybe reference some parts of https://beinglibertarian.com/mmt/), taking it out of circulation, and leaving some private saving, explain sectoral balances, explain sectoral balances, private saving, and how reduced private saving seems to be highly problematic to achieving the goal of full employment, full resource utilization and real economic growth per capita:
 - reference chart in http://www.economicsjunkie.com/sectoral-balances-and-private-saving/
 - reference private saving relation to recessions: https://beinglibertarian.com/private-sector-saving-recessions/
 - ... and depressions (see quote above)
 - talk about how bank lending naturally follows from the state's power to tax & spend units of exchange into existence, banks are essentially just the government's registered lending agents, purpose of bank lending (allow entrepreneurs to buy capital goods to improve worker productivity), it may lead to inflationary pressures, however productivity increases counteract. But long term there is admittedly a some degree of ongoing predictable inflation.
 - if causes of inflations come up, reference: http://www.economicsjunkie.com/alternative-inflation-theories/
 - if hyperinflation comes up: go to p 252 in Wray's book
 - if Roman gold coins/commodity money comes up go to p 248 in Wray's book

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